STRelay: A Universal Spatio-Temporal Relaying Framework for Location Prediction over Human Trajectory Data

TL;DR

STRelay is a universal framework that enhances human location prediction by explicitly modeling future spatiotemporal contexts, significantly improving accuracy across various models and datasets.

Contribution

It introduces a novel relaying approach to incorporate future spatiotemporal context into location prediction models, boosting their performance and handling non-routine activities better.

Findings

Consistently improves prediction accuracy by 2.49%-11.30%.

Particularly effective for entertainment locations and long-distance travelers.

Enhances models' ability to predict non-daily routines.

Abstract

Next location prediction is a critical task in human mobility modeling, enabling applications like travel planning and urban mobility management. Existing methods mainly rely on historical spatiotemporal trajectory data to train sequence models that directly forecast future locations. However, they often overlook the importance of the future spatiotemporal contexts, which are highly informative for the future locations. For example, knowing how much time and distance a user will travel could serve as a critical clue for predicting the user's next location. Against this background, we propose \textbf{STRelay}, a universal \textbf{\underline{S}}patio\textbf{\underline{T}}emporal \textbf{\underline{Relay}}ing framework explicitly modeling the future spatiotemporal context given a human trajectory, to boost the performance of different location prediction models. Specifically, STRelay models future spatiotemporal contexts in a relaying manner, which is subsequently integrated with the encoded historical representation from a base location prediction model, enabling multi-task learning by simultaneously predicting the next time interval, next moving distance interval, and finally the next location. We evaluate STRelay integrated with five state-of-the-art location prediction base models on four real-world trajectory datasets. Results demonstrate that STRelay consistently improves prediction performance across all cases by 2.49\%-11.30\%. Additionally, we find that the future spatiotemporal contexts are particularly helpful for entertainment-related locations and also for user groups who prefer traveling longer distances. The performance gain on such non-daily-routine activities, which often suffer from higher uncertainty, is indeed complementary to the base location prediction models that often excel at modeling regular daily routine patterns.