Comparing Malaria Trends in the Comoros Islands: ARIMA Modeling and Retrospective Analysis

TL;DR

This study uses ARIMA modeling to analyze malaria trends in the Comoros Islands from 1990 to 2019, confirming significant reductions in cases and predicting sustained low mortality if current control measures continue.

Contribution

It applies ARIMA modeling to forecast malaria trends and evaluate the long-term impact of control measures in the Comoros Islands.

Findings

Malaria cases decreased significantly in key regions.

Forecasts indicate low fatalities if current interventions persist.

Challenges like resistance and funding threaten future progress.

Abstract

Malaria remains a serious health challenge in the Comoros Islands, despite ongoing control efforts. Past studies have shown reductions in cases due to prevention and treatment measures, but little work has been done to forecast future malaria deaths and assess the long-term impact of these measures. Malaria mortality data from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using an ARIMA(1,0,0) model. The model was validated through diagnostic tests, ensuring reliability for forecasting trends. The study confirmed significant reductions in malaria cases, such as in Grand Comoro, where cases fell from 235.36 to 5.47 per 1,000 people. The ARIMA model predicted that fatalities will remain low if current control measures, including bed nets, indoor spraying, and mass drug administration, are sustained. The findings highlight the success of these interventions in reducing malaria mortality. However, challenges like drug and insecticide resistance and financial limitations pose risks to further progress. Continued support and adaptation of strategies are essential to address these challenges and sustain low malaria mortality rates. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of malaria control efforts in the Comoros and underscores the importance of maintaining these measures to achieve malaria elimination and improve public health outcomes.