Lexical Hints of Accuracy in LLM Reasoning Chains

TL;DR

This paper investigates lexical cues in Chain-of-Thought reasoning to predict LLM accuracy, finding that uncertainty markers reliably indicate incorrect answers, especially in low-accuracy benchmarks, aiding model calibration.

Contribution

It introduces lexical markers of uncertainty as signals for LLM answer correctness, enhancing post-hoc calibration methods for safer deployment.

Findings

Lexical uncertainty markers strongly predict incorrect responses.

Sentiment shifts in CoT provide additional, weaker signals.

CoT length predicts correctness only in intermediate-difficulty benchmarks.

Abstract

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning to produce an explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) before answering produces models that consistently raise overall performance on code, math, and general-knowledge benchmarks. However, on benchmarks where LLMs currently achieve low accuracy, such as Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), they often report high self-confidence, reflecting poor calibration. Here, we test whether measurable properties of the CoT provide reliable signals of an LLM's internal confidence in its answers. We analyze three feature classes: (i) CoT length, (ii) intra-CoT sentiment volatility, and (iii) lexicographic hints, including hedging words. Using DeepSeek-R1 and Claude 3.7 Sonnet on both Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a frontier benchmark with very low accuracy, and Omni-MATH, a saturated benchmark of moderate difficulty, we find that lexical markers of uncertainty (e.g., $\textit{guess}$, $\textit{stuck}$, $\textit{hard}$) in the CoT are the strongest indicators of an incorrect response, while shifts in the CoT sentiment provide a weaker but complementary signal. CoT length is informative only on Omni-MATH, where accuracy is already high ($\approx 70\%$), and carries no signal on the harder HLE ($\approx 9\%$), indicating that CoT length predicts correctness only in the intermediate-difficulty benchmarks, i.e., inside the model's demonstrated capability, but still below saturation. Finally, we find that uncertainty indicators in the CoT are consistently more salient than high-confidence markers, making errors easier to predict than correct responses. Our findings support a lightweight post-hoc calibration signal that complements unreliable self-reported probabilities and supports safer deployment of LLMs.