Policy, Risk, and Norms Shape Collective Behaviors Worldwide

TL;DR

This study models how policy, risk perception, and social norms influence mask-wearing behaviors across 47 countries during COVID-19, revealing key factors that shape collective responses and informing better policy design.

Contribution

Introduces a process-based, utility-driven model capturing the influence of policy, risk, and norms on mask-wearing across diverse countries with minimal complexity.

Findings

Model accurately reproduces national mask-wearing trajectories.

Policy and norms significantly influence behavioral variation.

Cultural and socioeconomic factors correlate with behavioral drivers.

Abstract

Societal responses to environmental change vary widely, even under comparable shocks, reflecting differences in both policy measures and public reactions shaped by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. We examine mask-wearing dynamics across 47 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic using a process-based, utility-driven model of individual behavior with three evolving drivers: policy stringency, disease risk, and social norms to understand emergent collective behavior. Calibrated with daily data on mask usage, COVID-19 deaths, and policy mandates, the model reproduces diverse national trajectories with minimal complexity. Policy and norms are crucial for explaining variation, and we find significant associations between weights for all three drivers and cultural and socioeconomic indicators. Our findings demonstrate how mechanistic models can uncover the processes shaping collective behavior, enabling policymakers to anticipate the magnitude and timing of behavioral change and design more effective, context-sensitive interventions.