Reliability, Embeddedness, and Agency: A Utility-Driven Mathematical Framework for Agent-Centric AI Adoption

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical framework for understanding agent-centric AI adoption, focusing on reliability, embeddedness, and agency, with detailed modeling, analysis, and benchmarking of adoption dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces a formal axiomatic model of AI adoption, including identifiability analysis, comparison methods, and extensive empirical validation, advancing understanding of sustained AI system use.

Findings

Derived phase conditions for adoption troughs and overshoots.

Validated model with a multi-series benchmark showing reliable coverage.

Provided calibration and residual analysis for model parameters.

Abstract

We formalize three design axioms for sustained adoption of agent-centric AI systems executing multi-step tasks: (A1) Reliability > Novelty; (A2) Embed > Destination; (A3) Agency > Chat. We model adoption as a sum of a decaying novelty term and a growing utility term and derive the phase conditions for troughs/overshoots with full proofs. We introduce: (i) an identifiability/confounding analysis for $(\alpha,\beta,N_0,U_{\max})$ with delta-method gradients; (ii) a non-monotone comparator (logistic-with-transient-bump) evaluated on the same series to provide additional model comparison; (iii) ablations over hazard families $h(\cdot)$ mapping $\Delta V \to \beta$; (iv) a multi-series benchmark (varying trough depth, noise, AR structure) reporting coverage (type-I error, power); (v) calibration of friction proxies against time-motion/survey ground truth with standard errors; (vi) residual analyses (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) for each fitted curve; (vii) preregistered windowing choices for pre/post estimation; (viii) Fisher information & CRLB for $(\alpha,\beta)$ under common error models; (ix) microfoundations linking $\mathcal{T}$ to $(N_0,U_{\max})$; (x) explicit comparison to bi-logistic, double-exponential, and mixture models; and (xi) threshold sensitivity to $C_f$ heterogeneity. Figures and tables are reflowed for readability, and the bibliography restores and extends non-logistic/Bass adoption references (Gompertz, Richards, Fisher-Pry, Mansfield, Griliches, Geroski, Peres). All code and logs necessary to reproduce the synthetic analyses are embedded as LaTeX listings.