Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion

TL;DR

This survey of AI experts estimates a 50% chance of high-level machine intelligence by 2040-2050, with significant risks and a potential for superintelligence within 30 years thereafter, highlighting varied opinions on AI's future impact.

Contribution

This paper provides empirical data on expert opinions regarding the timeline and risks of developing high-level and superintelligent AI.

Findings

50% chance of high-level AI by 2040-2050

30% chance of superintelligence within 30 years after that

One in three experts see significant risks for humanity

Abstract

There is, in some quarters, concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high-level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time-frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be 'bad' or 'extremely bad' for humanity.