Climate2Energy: a framework to consistently include climate change into energy system modeling

TL;DR

Climate2Energy (C2E) is a comprehensive framework that converts climate model outputs into energy system inputs, accounting for climate change impacts on renewable generation and demand, with a new hydropower model and analysis of European climate scenarios.

Contribution

C2E introduces a systematic method to incorporate climate change into energy system modeling, including bias correction and a novel hydropower model based on river discharge.

Findings

Significant reductions in heating demand (-10% to -50%) in Europe.

Notable decreases in hydropower potential (-10% to -40%) in Southern Europe.

Substantial increases in cooling demand (>100%) across Europe.

Abstract

Supply and demand in future energy systems depend on the weather. We therefore need to quantify how climate change and variability impact energy systems. Here, we present Climate2Energy (C2E), a framework to consistently convert climate model outputs into energy system model inputs, covering all relevant types of renewable generation and demand for heating and cooling. C2E performs bias correction, uses established open-source tools where possible, and provides outputs tailored to energy system models. Moreover, C2E introduces a new hydropower model based on river discharge. We analyze dedicated hourly CESM2 Climate Model Simulations under the SSP3-7.0 scenario in Europe, covering climate variability through multiple realizations. We find large reductions in heating demand (-10% to -50%) and Southern European hydropower potentials (-10% to -40%) and increases in cooling demand (>100%). Based on stochastic optimizations with AnyMOD, we confirm that energy systems are highly sensitive to climate conditions, particularly on the demand side.