Network Dynamics and Spatial Shifts in Civilian Targeting: A Stochastic Block Model Analysis of the Colombian Armed Conflict

TL;DR

This study analyzes how territorial control and civilian victimization in the Colombian conflict evolved from 1978 to 2007, revealing shifts from centralized to fragmented network structures using stochastic block models.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic block model approach to characterize territorial and network dynamics in civil conflict, highlighting structural shifts over time.

Findings

Centralized network structures during periods of limited actors

Fragmented, overlapping influence networks during widespread conflict

Increased inter-community connectivity as spatial fragmentation grows

Abstract

In this article, we explore how the escalating victimization of civilians during civil wars is mirrored in the fragmented distribution of territorial control, focusing on the Colombian armed conflict. Through an exhaustive characterization of the topology of bipartite and projected networks of municipalities, we describe changes in territorial configurations across different periods between 1978 and 2007. By employing stochastic block models for count data, we show that, during periods dominated by a small set of actors, the networks adopt a centralized node periphery structure, whereas during times of widespread conflict, areas of influence overlap in complex ways. Our findings also suggest the existence of cohesive municipal communities shaped by both geographic proximity and affinities between armed structures, as well as internally dispersed groups with a high likelihood of interaction. As the spatial distribution shifts toward a more fragmented arrangement, the average interaction intensity between communities predicted by the stochastic block model approaches that within communities, indicating a weakening of modular structure and increased inter community connectivity.