Evaluating Competitiveness in UEFA's New Champions League Format

TL;DR

This paper analyzes UEFA's new Champions League format, showing through simulations that it increases the number of competitive matches compared to the previous format.

Contribution

It provides an empirical evaluation of the new tournament structure's impact on match competitiveness using Monte Carlo simulations.

Findings

The new format results in more competitive matches.

Simulations indicate increased competitiveness under the new system.

The study quantifies the effect of format change on match competitiveness.

Abstract

Recently, UEFA changed the group stage of its international soccer competitions to an incomplete round robin tournament. Previously, teams were divided into groups, each playing a double round robin tournament with a resulting ranking table. In contrast, the new format has all teams competing in one league, producing a single ranking. We investigate the effect of the new format on the number of competitive matches in the UEFA Champions League. A match is non-competitive if the prize for at least one opponent does not depend on the match outcome, or if there exists an opportunity for both opponents to collude; otherwise, we call a match competitive. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the new format results in more competitive matches than the old format.