Human Extinction A Demographic Perspective

TL;DR

This paper predicts that if current birth rate declines continue, humans could face extinction between 2089 and 2394, emphasizing demographic factors as critical to extinction timelines.

Contribution

It provides a novel demographic-based model predicting human extinction dates based on current and hypothetical birth rate scenarios.

Findings

Extinction could occur as early as 2089 under zero birth scenario.

Current declining birth rates suggest extinction around 2359 to 2394.

Societal collapse accelerates extinction timelines.

Abstract

Studies that predict species extinction have focused on a range of flora and fauna but in regard to Homo sapiens there are, with one notable exception, no predictive studies, only considerations of possible ways this may occur. The exception believes extinction of Homo sapiens will happen in 10,000 years. We agree that extinction will happen, but we disagree on the timing: The work we present here suggests that if the current decline in birth rates continues, humans could be extinct by 2394. If we consider the absence of working-age people and the accompanying collapse of services, the survivorship rates would most likely be lower. Given this, it is plausible that extinction could occur around 2359. We also examined a scenario in which births ended in 2024, which revealed that Homo sapiens would become extinct in 2134. Given societal collapse, extinction under the zero births scenario could occur around 2089.