Controlling tail risk in two-slope ski rental

TL;DR

This paper extends the ski rental problem to include tail risk constraints, revealing complex optimal solution structures and proposing algorithms for near-optimal and exact solutions.

Contribution

It introduces tail risk bounds into the two-slope ski rental problem, uncovering new solution behaviors and developing algorithms to compute optimal strategies.

Findings

Optimal solutions may involve no purchase or probabilistic purchase at multiple times.

Tail risk constraints fundamentally alter the structure of optimal solutions.

Algorithms for near-optimal and exact solutions are developed based on new structural insights.

Abstract

We study the optimal solution to a general two-slope ski rental problem with a tail risk, i.e., the chance of the competitive ratio exceeding a value $\gamma$ is bounded by $\delta$. This extends the recent study of tail bounds for ski rental by [Dinitz et al. SODA 2024] to the two-slope version defined by [Lotker et al. IPL 2008]. In this version, even after "buying" we must still pay a rental cost at each time step, though it is lower after buying. This models many real-world "rent-or-buy" scenarios where a one-time investment decreases (but does not eliminate) the per-time cost. Despite this being a simple extension of the classical problem, we find that adding tail risk bounds creates a fundamentally different solution structure. For example, in our setting there is a possibility that we never buy in an optimal solution (which can also occur without tail bounds), but more strangely (and unlike the case without tail bounds or the classical case with tail bounds) we also show that the optimal solution might need to have nontrivial probabilities of buying even at finite points beyond the time corresponding to the buying cost. Moreover, in many regimes there does not exist a unique optimal solution. As our first contribution, we develop a series of structure theorems to characterize some features of optimal solutions. The complex structure of optimal solutions makes it more difficult to develop an algorithm to compute such a solution. As our second contribution, we utilize our structure theorems to design two algorithms: one based on a greedy algorithm combined with binary search that is fast but yields arbitrarily close to optimal solutions, and a slower algorithm based on linear programming which computes exact optimal solutions.