Optimal Planning and Machine Learning for Responsive Tracking and Enhanced Forecasting of Wildfires using a Spacecraft Constellation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel approach combining optimal planning and machine learning with spaceborne data from a satellite constellation to improve wildfire monitoring, prediction, and response with high accuracy and low latency.

Contribution

It presents a new integrated workflow using mixed integer programming and ML to optimize data collection, create burn maps, and enhance fire spread forecasting with unprecedented high-resolution satellite data.

Findings

Achieved 98-100% observation opportunity collection efficiency.

Improved fire prediction correlation by over 40% compared to state-of-the-art.

Reduced wildfire monitoring latency to 6-30 hours from days.

Abstract

We propose a novel concept of operations using optimal planning methods and machine learning (ML) to collect spaceborne data that is unprecedented for monitoring wildfires, process it to create new or enhanced products in the context of wildfire danger or spread monitoring, and assimilate them to improve existing, wildfire decision support tools delivered to firefighters within latency appropriate for time-critical applications. The concept is studied with respect to NASA's CYGNSS Mission, a constellation of passive microwave receivers that measure specular GNSS-R reflections despite clouds and smoke. Our planner uses a Mixed Integer Program formulation to schedule joint observation data collection and downlink for all satellites. Optimal solutions are found quickly that collect 98-100% of available observation opportunities. ML-based fire predictions that drive the planner objective are greater than 40% more correlated with ground truth than existing state-of-art. The presented case study on the TX Smokehouse Creek fire in 2024 and LA fires in 2025 represents the first high-resolution data collected by CYGNSS of active fires. Creation of Burnt Area Maps (BAM) using ML on data from active fires and BAM assimilation into NASA's Weather Research and Forecasting Model using neural nets to broadcast fire spread are novel outcomes. BAM and CYGNSS obtained soil moisture are integrated for the first time into USGS fire danger maps. Inclusion of CYGNSS data in ML-based burn predictions boosts accuracy by 13%, and inclusion of high-resolution data boosts ML recall by another 15%. The proposed workflow has an expected latency of 6-30h, improving on the current delivery time of multiple days. All components in the proposed concept are shown to be computationally scalable and globally generalizable, with sustainability considerations such as edge efficiency and low latency on small devices.