Order-disorder-order transitions and winning margins' scaling in kinetic exchange opinion model

TL;DR

This paper investigates the order-disorder-order phase transitions in a kinetic exchange opinion model and analyzes how winning margins scale in different phases, providing insights into election data patterns.

Contribution

It reveals the existence of multiple phase transitions in the model and links the scaling of winning margins to these phases, offering a theoretical explanation for election data observations.

Findings

Distinct scaling features of winning margins in ordered and disordered phases

Identification of a second transition to segregation ordering in low dimensions

Qualitative agreement with election data on contest tightness

Abstract

The kinetic exchange opinion model shows a well-studied order disorder transition as the noise parameter, representing discord between interacting agents, is increased. A further increase in the noise drives the model, in low dimensions, to an extreme segregation ordering through a transition of similar nature. The scaling behavior of the winning margins have distinct features in the ordered and disordered phases that are similar to the observations noted recently in election data in various countries, explaining the qualitative differences in such scaling between tightly contested and land-slide election victories.