Identifying high-impact consumers' behavioural changes for flexibility and demand reduction in a net-zero energy system

TL;DR

This paper evaluates how demand-side behavioral changes and flexibility measures can optimize costs and emissions in a European net-zero energy system, highlighting the benefits of demand shifting and curtailment strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a high-resolution model assessing demand flexibility mechanisms' impacts on system costs and emissions in a comprehensive European energy system.

Findings

Demand flexibility reduces system costs by up to 0.4%.

Curtailment of peak demand cuts costs by 0.9%.

Demand shifting and curtailment significantly improve system efficiency.

Abstract

Achieving decarbonization across energy sectors requires demand-side transformation such as behavioural changes and end-use efficiency improvements to complement supply-side technological shifts. However, changing consumption patterns is challenging, and implementing efficiency measures requires time and investment, highlighting the need to prioritize strategies. We address this prioritization using a high-resolution model of the European energy system under net-zero emissions, assessing the system-wide impacts of reducing or shifting energy service demand across power, heating, transport, aviation, shipping, industry, and agriculture. Four stylised mechanisms (constant reduction, peak shaving, temporal shifting, and curtailment) that can be mapped to real-world phenomena are assessed for their impacts on system costs, electricity and heating prices, $CO_2$ price, and capacity needs. Results indicate that demand flexibility and curtailment yield the greatest benefits: shifting demand by 2 hours to align with solar output reduces system costs by 0.4%, while curtailing 3.7% of electricity demand during peak price periods cuts costs by 0.9%.