A semi-automatic approach to study population dynamics based on population pyramids

TL;DR

This paper introduces an algorithmic method to classify population pyramids, enabling automated analysis of population structure changes over time for humans and animals, with applications in research and management.

Contribution

It presents a novel algorithmic classification system for population pyramids based on shape, linked to population characteristics, using zoo data from 1970-2024.

Findings

Plausible classification of population pyramids achieved

Effective detection of population size changes and shape transitions

Potential applications in population management and historical analysis

Abstract

The depiction of populations - of humans or animals - as "population pyramids" is a useful tool for the assessment of various characteristics of populations at a glance. Although these visualisations are well-known objects in various communities, formalised and algorithmic approaches to gain information from these data are less present. Here, we present an algorithm-based classification of population data into "pyramids" of different shapes ([normal and inverted] pyramid / plunger / bell, [lower / middle / upper] diamond, column, hourglass) that are linked to specific characteristics of the population. To develop the algorithmic approach, we used data describing global zoo populations of mammals from 1970-2024. This algorithm-based approach delivers plausible classifications, in particular with respect to changes in population size linked to specific series of, and transitions between, different "pyramid" shapes. We believe this approach might become a useful tool for analysing and communicating historical population developments in multiple contexts and is of broad interest. Moreover, it might be useful for animal population management strategies.