The Science Fiction Science Method

TL;DR

This paper introduces 'science fiction science', a novel experimental approach to predict social and behavioral impacts of future technologies through simulated scenarios, aiming to improve foresight and regulation.

Contribution

It proposes a new quantitative method using experimental simulations of future technologies, addressing validity concerns and encouraging broader adoption.

Findings

Method enables quantitative assessment of attitudes towards future tech

Addresses validity threats in experimental simulation of future scenarios

Provides a framework for normalizing science fiction science methods

Abstract

Predicting the social and behavioral impact of future technologies, before they are achieved, would allow us to guide their development and regulation before these impacts get entrenched. Traditionally, this prediction has relied on qualitative, narrative methods. Here we describe a method which uses experimental methods to simulate future technologies, and collect quantitative measures of the attitudes and behaviors of participants assigned to controlled variations of the future. We call this method 'science fiction science'. We suggest that the reason why this method has not been fully embraced yet, despite its potential benefits, is that experimental scientists may be reluctant to engage in work facing such serious validity threats as science fiction science. To address these threats, we consider possible constraints on the kind of technology that science fiction science may study, as well as the unconventional, immersive methods that science fiction science may require. We seek to provide perspective on the reasons why this method has been marginalized for so long, what benefits it would bring if it could be built on strong yet unusual methods, and how we can normalize these methods to help the diverse community of science fiction scientists to engage in a virtuous cycle of validity improvement.