Modeling the Temperature-Humidity Coupling Dynamics of Soybean Pod Borer Population and Assessing the Predictive Performance of the PCM-NN Algorithm

TL;DR

This paper introduces PCM-NN, a physics-informed neural network model that effectively predicts soybean pod borer populations by integrating climatic factors and pest dynamics, improving forecasting accuracy and interpretability.

Contribution

It develops a novel PCM-NN framework embedding a climate-driven ODE into PINNs for pest population prediction, addressing limitations of previous models.

Findings

PCM-NN accurately predicts pest dynamics under climate variability.

The model maintains biological interpretability while capturing nonlinear relationships.

Experimental results show strong predictive performance using real monitoring data.

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and agricultural globalization, soybean production is increasingly threatened by pest outbreaks, with Leguminivora glycinivorella (commonly known as the soybean pod borer) being a major pest species. This pest is widely distributed, particularly in northeastern China, the country's primary soybean-producing region, where its outbreaks have significantly affected both yield and quality. Although statistical and mechanistic models have been applied to pest forecasting, existing approaches often fail to effectively integrate climatic factors with pest dynamics and lack sufficient expressive power. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel pest prediction method based on Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Specifically, we formulate a logistic-type ordinary differential equation (ODE) that incorporates microclimate factors, temperature, humidity, and time, to describe the temporal dynamics of the soybean pod borer population. This ODE model is embedded into the PINN framework to develop the Pest Correlation Model Neural Network (PCM-NN), which is used to jointly infer the microclimate-driven parameter function alpha(T, H, t) and fit the pest population dynamics. We evaluate PCM-NN using daily monitoring data of soybean pod borer collected in Changchun, Jilin Province, from July to September during 2020-2023. Experimental results demonstrate that PCM-NN preserves biological interpretability while exhibiting strong nonlinear representational capacity, offering a feasible pathway for pest modeling and forecasting under multi-factor climatic conditions. This approach provides valuable support for agricultural pest monitoring, prevention, and control strategies.