Placing the Near-Earth Object Impact Probability in Context

TL;DR

This paper estimates the impact frequency of large near-Earth objects and compares it to other causes of death, highlighting its relative risk.

Contribution

It derives a specific impact frequency for large NEOs using models and contextualizes it with other preventable fatalities.

Findings

Impact frequency of >140m NEOs is higher than lightning strikes.

NEO impact risk is comparable to other preventable causes of death.

Advancements suggest potential for impact prevention with sufficient warning.

Abstract

Near-Earth objects (NEOs) have the potential to cause extensive damage and loss of life on Earth. Advancements in NEO discovery, trajectory prediction, and deflection technology indicate that an impact could be prevented, with sufficient warning time. We derive an impact frequency of NEOs 140m and larger, using the NEOMOD2 NEO population model and JPL Horizons. We then place that frequency in context with other preventable causes of death; allowing for comparison between a planet-wide event and individual events that cause fatalities such as car crashes and carbon monoxide poisoning. We find that the chance of a $>140$ m asteroid hitting the Earth is more likely than the chance of an individual being struck by lightning.