The Radius, Composition, Albedo, and Absolute Magnitude of Planet Nine Based on Exoplanets with Teq less than 600 K and the Planet Nine Reference Population 3.0

TL;DR

This paper estimates the physical characteristics of Planet Nine, including its size, composition, albedo, and brightness, based on analogs from exoplanets with similar temperatures, and discusses its detectability with future telescopes.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed estimates of Planet Nine's composition, albedo, and brightness using exoplanet analogs and models, guiding future observational searches.

Findings

Planet Nine likely a mini-Neptune with 2.0-2.6 Earth radii.

Albedo estimated between 0.33 and 0.47.

Absolute magnitude estimated between -6.1 and -5.2.

Abstract

Evidence suggests the existence of a large planet in the outer Solar System, Planet Nine, with a predicted mass of 6.6 +2.6 / -1.7 Earth masses (Brown et al., 2024). Based on mass radius composition models, planet formation theory, and confirmed exoplanets with low mass and radius uncertainty and equilibrium temperature less than 600 K, we determine the most likely composition for Planet Nine is a mini-Neptune with a radius in the range 2.0 to 2.6 Earth radii and a H-He envelope fraction in the range of 0.6 percent to 3.5 percent by mass. Using albedo estimates for a mini-Neptune extrapolated from V-band data for the Solar Systems giant planets gives albedo values for Planet Nine in the range of 0.47 to 0.33. Using the most likely orbit and aphelion estimates from the Planet Nine Reference Population 3.0, we estimate Planet Nines absolute magnitude in the range of -6.1 to -5.2 and apparent magnitude in the range of +21.9 to +22.7. Finally, we estimate that, if the hypothetical Planet Nine exists and is detected by upcoming surveys, it will have a resolvable disk using some higher resolution world class telescopes.