Slomads Rising: Stay Length Shifts in Digital Nomad Travel, United States 2019-2024

TL;DR

This study analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the length of stay in U.S. Airbnb bookings from 2019 to 2024, revealing increased stay durations and shifts in booking patterns during different pandemic phases.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative analysis of pandemic-era shifts in stay lengths and booking behaviors using comprehensive reservation data and advanced statistical modeling.

Findings

Mean nights per booking increased during the pandemic.

Long stays (28+ nights) became more common post-pandemic.

Structural level shift in booking patterns identified during COVID-19.

Abstract

Using all U.S. Airbnb reservations created in 2019-2024 (booking-count weighted), we quantify pandemic-era shifts in nights per booking (NPB) and the mechanism behind them. The mean rose from 3.68 pre-COVID to 4.36 during restrictions and stabilized near 4.07 post-2021 (about 10% above 2019); the booking-weighted median moved from 2 to 3 nights. A two-parameter log-normal fits best by wide AIC/BIC margins, indicating heavy tails. A negative-binomial model with month effects implies post-vaccine bookings are 6.5% shorter than restriction-era bookings, while pre-COVID bookings are 16% shorter. In a two-part model at 28 nights, the booking share of month-plus stays rose from 1.43% (pre) to 2.72% (restriction) and settled at 2.04% (post); conditional means among long stays were about 55-60 nights. Thus the higher average reflects more long stays rather than longer long stays. A SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with pandemic-phase dummies improves fit (LR=8.39, df=2, p=0.015), consistent with a structural level shift.