NAICS-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Large-Scale POI Co-visitation Prediction: A Multi-Modal Dataset and Methodology

TL;DR

This paper presents NAICS-aware GraphSAGE, a graph neural network that leverages business taxonomy knowledge to accurately predict large-scale POI co-visitation patterns, outperforming existing models.

Contribution

It introduces a scalable, multi-modal GNN model that incorporates industry codes for improved co-visitation prediction at a population scale.

Findings

R-squared improved from 0.243 to 0.625

NDCG@10 increased by 32%

Model scales to 4.2 billion venue pairs

Abstract

Understanding where people go after visiting one business is crucial for urban planning, retail analytics, and location-based services. However, predicting these co-visitation patterns across millions of venues remains challenging due to extreme data sparsity and the complex interplay between spatial proximity and business relationships. Traditional approaches using only geographic distance fail to capture why coffee shops attract different customer flows than fine dining restaurants, even when co-located. We introduce NAICS-aware GraphSAGE, a novel graph neural network that integrates business taxonomy knowledge through learnable embeddings to predict population-scale co-visitation patterns. Our key insight is that business semantics, captured through detailed industry codes, provide crucial signals that pure spatial models cannot explain. The approach scales to massive datasets (4.2 billion potential venue pairs) through efficient state-wise decomposition while combining spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic features in an end-to-end framework. Evaluated on our POI-Graph dataset comprising 94.9 million co-visitation records across 92,486 brands and 48 US states, our method achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines: the R-squared value increases from 0.243 to 0.625 (a 157 percent improvement), with strong gains in ranking quality (32 percent improvement in NDCG at 10).