Machine Learning Risk Intelligence for Green Hydrogen Investment: Insights for Duqm R3 Auction

TL;DR

This paper introduces an AI-based decision support system that uses meteorological data to predict maintenance risks for green hydrogen infrastructure in Oman, aiding auction decisions amid scarce operational data.

Contribution

It develops a novel Maintenance Pressure Index (MPI) leveraging environmental data to assess risks in desert hydrogen projects, filling a critical knowledge gap.

Findings

MPI effectively predicts maintenance pressures based on environmental factors.

The system enhances risk assessment and decision-making in green hydrogen infrastructure planning.

It provides a temporal benchmarking tool for auction evaluation without historical operational data.

Abstract

As green hydrogen emerges as a major component of global decarbonisation, Oman has positioned itself strategically through national auctions and international partnerships. Following two successful green hydrogen project rounds, the country launched its third auction (R3) in the Duqm region. While this area exhibits relative geospatial homogeneity, it is still vulnerable to environmental fluctuations that pose inherent risks to productivity. Despite growing global investment in green hydrogen, operational data remains scarce, with major projects like Saudi Arabia's NEOM facility not expected to commence production until 2026, and Oman's ACME Duqm project scheduled for 2028. This absence of historical maintenance and performance data from large-scale hydrogen facilities in desert environments creates a major knowledge gap for accurate risk assessment for infrastructure planning and auction decisions. Given this data void, environmental conditions emerge as accessible and reliable proxy for predicting infrastructure maintenance pressures, because harsh desert conditions such as dust storms, extreme temperatures, and humidity fluctuations are well-documented drivers of equipment degradation in renewable energy systems. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an Artificial Intelligence decision support system that leverages publicly available meteorological data to develop a predictive Maintenance Pressure Index (MPI), which predicts risk levels and future maintenance demands on hydrogen infrastructure. This tool strengthens regulatory foresight and operational decision-making by enabling temporal benchmarking to assess and validate performance claims over time. It can be used to incorporate temporal risk intelligence into auction evaluation criteria despite the absence of historical operational benchmarks.