CNN-based Surface Temperature Forecasts with Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a CNN-based post-processing method that enhances low-resolution ensemble weather forecasts to produce high-resolution surface temperature predictions up to 5.5 days ahead, improving accuracy and reliability.

Contribution

It presents a novel member-wise CNN correction approach that improves high-resolution temperature forecasts by reducing errors while maintaining ensemble spread.

Findings

Enhanced forecast accuracy with CNN bias correction and downscaling.

Improved probabilistic reliability and spread-skill ratio in ensemble forecasts.

Scalable method suitable for operational centers with limited computational resources.

Abstract

Due to limited computational resources, medium-range temperature forecasts typically rely on low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are prone to systematic and random errors. We propose a method that integrates a convolutional neural network (CNN) with an ensemble of low-resolution NWP models (40-km horizontal resolution) to produce high-resolution (5-km) surface temperature forecasts with lead times extending up to 5.5 days (132 h). First, CNN-based post-processing (bias correction and spatial downscaling) is applied to individual ensemble members to reduce systematic errors and perform downscaling, which improves the deterministic forecast accuracy. Second, this member-wise correction is applied to all 51 ensemble members to construct a new high-resolution ensemble forecasting system with an improved probabilistic reliability and spread-skill ratio that differs from the simple error reduction mechanism of ensemble averaging. Whereas averaging reduces forecast errors by smoothing spatial fields, our member-wise CNN correction reduces error from noise while maintaining forecast information at a level comparable to that of other high-resolution forecasts. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method provides a practical and scalable solution for improving medium-range temperature forecasts, which is particularly valuable for use in operational centers with limited computational resources.