Multi-modal encoder-decoder neural network for forecasting solar wind speed at L1

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multi-modal encoder-decoder neural network that forecasts solar wind speed up to four days ahead using solar observations, significantly improving accuracy over previous models.

Contribution

The work presents a novel multi-modal encoder-decoder framework that combines different solar observation modes for improved solar wind speed forecasting.

Findings

Achieved RMSEs of 55-58 km/s for 1-4 day forecasts.

Demonstrated robustness on unseen data from 2019-2023.

Outperformed previous models in RMSE accuracy.

Abstract

The solar wind, accelerated within the solar corona, sculpts the heliosphere and continuously interacts with planetary atmospheres. On Earth, high-speed solar-wind streams may lead to severe disruption of satellite operations and power grids. Accurate and reliable forecasting of the ambient solar-wind speed is therefore highly desirable. This work presents an encoder-decoder neural-network framework for simultaneously forecasting the daily averaged solar-wind speed for the subsequent four days. The encoder-decoder framework is trained with the two different modes of solar observations. The history of solar-wind observations from prior solar-rotations and EUV coronal observations up to four days prior to the current time form the input to two different encoders. The decoder is designed to output the daily averaged solar-wind speed from four days prior to the current time to four days into the future. Our model outputs the solar-wind speed with Root-Mean-Square Errors (RMSEs) of 55 km/s, 58 km/s, 58 km/s, and 58 km/s and Pearson correlations of 0.78, 0.66, 0.64 and 0.63 for one to four days in advance respectively. While the model is trained and validated on observations between 2010 - 2018, we demonstrate its robustness via application on unseen test data between 2019 - 2023, yielding RMSEs of 53 km/s and Pearson correlations 0.55 for a four-day advance prediction. Our encoder-decoder model thus produces much improved RMSE values compared to the previous works and paves the way for developing comprehensive multimodal deep learning models for operational solar wind forecasting.