Strategy Evolution in the Adoption of Conservation Tillage Technology under Time Preference Heterogeneity and Lemon Market: Insights from Evolutionary Dynamics

TL;DR

This paper models the dynamic adoption of conservation tillage technology among farmers, revealing how time preferences and market perceptions influence adoption patterns and informing sustainable policy design.

Contribution

It introduces an evolutionary game model incorporating heterogeneity in farmer time preferences and lemon market effects, providing new insights into technology adoption dynamics.

Findings

High time preferences hinder adoption due to discounting benefits.

Market benefit and loss levels determine stable coexistence or complex dynamics.

Policy measures like certification, subsidies, and taxes can influence adoption outcomes.

Abstract

The promotion of Conservation Tillage Technology (CTT) is critical for mitigating global soil degradation, yet their actual adoption rates remain substantially lower than anticipated targets. Existing research predominantly focuses on static factor analyses, failing to adequately capture the dynamic evolutionary mechanisms of farmer strategic interactions and the impacts of information asymmetries in agricultural markets. This study constructs an evolutionary game model integrating heterogeneous time preferences and lemon market effects to reveal the dynamic equilibrium of technology adoption within farmer groups operating under bounded rationality. Key findings indicate that farmers with high time preferences significantly impede CTT adoption due to the excessive discounting of long-term benefits. Furthermore, the lemon market effect dictates the system's equilibrium states: 1) When the lemon market benefit ($P$) exceeds the lemon market loss ($Q$) ($P > Q$), stable tripartite coexistence of adoption strategies emerges; 2) When $P < Q$, the system evolves unpredictably, exhibiting dynamics characterized by heteroclinic cycles; 3) At the critical threshold $P = Q$, the system transforms into a conservative Hamiltonian system, yielding stable periodic oscillation solutions. Based on these insights, policy recommendations are proposed: implementing ecological certification schemes to mitigate information asymmetry, offering subsidies and insurance to reduce adoption risks, and utilizing environmental taxes to internalize the negative externalities associated with conventional tillage. This research not only provides a dynamic analytical paradigm for the diffusion of green agricultural technologies but also furnishes a theoretical foundation for designing sustainable agricultural policies in developing countries.