Towards an ABM on Proactive Community Adaptation for Climate Change

TL;DR

This paper introduces an agent-based model simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change in Bergen, Norway, highlighting decision-making processes among diverse stakeholders and identifying leverage points for policy intervention.

Contribution

It develops a comprehensive ABM integrating multiple agent types and interactions to analyze urban climate adaptation dynamics and policy impacts.

Findings

Identifies key feedback loops influencing climate adaptation outcomes.

Highlights critical intervention points for policy measures.

Demonstrates the role of social influence and media in shaping urban planning decisions.

Abstract

We present an agent-based model (ABM) simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change in an urban context. The model is applied to Bergen, Norway, represented as a complex socio-ecological system. It integrates multiple agent types: municipal government (urban planners and political actors), civil society (individual citizens), environmental NGOs and activists, and media. Agents interact during urban planning processes - particularly the evaluation and approval of new development proposals. Urban planners provide technical assessments, while politicians (organized by party) make final decisions to approve, modify, or reject projects. Environmental NGOs, activist groups, and the media shape public perception and influence policymakers through campaigns, lobbying, protests, and news coverage. Individual citizens decide whether to engage in collective action based on personal values and social influences. The model captures the resulting decision-making ecosystem and reveals feedback loops and leverage points that determine climate-adaptive outcomes. By analyzing these dynamics, we identify critical intervention points where targeted policy measures can facilitate systemic transformation toward more climate-resilient urban development.