On the importance of tail assumptions in climate extreme event attribution

TL;DR

This paper investigates how different statistical tail assumptions in multivariate models influence the conclusions of climate extreme event attribution, emphasizing the importance of model choice in accurately assessing climate change impacts.

Contribution

It compares three advanced multivariate models for extremal dependence, demonstrating how tail assumptions affect attribution results in both simulated and real climate data.

Findings

Tail assumptions significantly influence causality metrics in EEA.

Model misspecification can lead to misleading attribution conclusions.

Careful model selection is crucial for accurate climate extreme event attribution.

Abstract

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change influences such events. Central to EEA is the accurate statistical characterization of atmospheric extremes, which are inherently multivariate or spatial due to their measurement over high-dimensional grids. Within the counterfactual causal inference framework of Pearl, we evaluate how tail assumptions affect attribution conclusions by comparing three multivariate modeling approaches for estimating causation metrics. These include: (i) the multivariate generalized Pareto distribution, which imposes an invariant tail dependence structure; (ii) the factor copula model of Castro-Camilo and Huser (2020), which offers flexible subasymptotic behavior; and (iii) the model of Huser and Wadsworth (2019), which smoothly transitions between different forms of extremal dependence. We assess the implications of these modeling choices in both simulated scenarios (under varying forms of model misspecification) and real data applications, using weekly winter maxima over Europe from the M\'et\'eo-France CNRM model and daily precipitation from the ACCESS-CM2 model over the U.S. Our findings highlight that tail assumptions critically shape causality metrics in EEA. Misspecification of the extremal dependence structure can lead to substantially different and potentially misleading attribution conclusions, underscoring the need for careful model selection and evaluation when quantifying the influence of climate change on extreme events.