Investigating Forecasting Models for Pandemic Infections Using Heterogeneous Data Sources: A 2-year Study with COVID-19

TL;DR

This study evaluates COVID-19 forecasting models using a comprehensive two-year dataset from Cyprus, integrating diverse data sources to improve understanding of disease dynamics and enhance future outbreak response strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a large-scale, multi-source dataset for COVID-19 forecasting and assesses the impact of external factors on model performance in a real-world setting.

Findings

Forecasting models' accuracy varies with external factors.

Integrated data sources improve prediction reliability.

External influences significantly affect infection trends.

Abstract

Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To minimise the spread, governments implemented several non-pharmaceutical interventions like lockdowns and travel restrictions. While effective in controlling transmission, these measures also posed significant economic and societal challenges. Although the WHO declared COVID-19 no longer a global health emergency in May 2023, its impact persists, shaping public health strategies. The vast amount of data collected during the pandemic offers valuable insights into disease dynamics, transmission, and intervention effectiveness. Leveraging these insights can improve forecasting models, enhancing preparedness and response to future outbreaks while mitigating their social and economic impact. This paper presents a large-scale case study on COVID-19 forecasting in Cyprus, utilising a two-year dataset that integrates epidemiological data, vaccination records, policy measures, and weather conditions. We analyse infection trends, assess forecasting performance, and examine the influence of external factors on disease dynamics. The insights gained contribute to improved pandemic preparedness and response strategies.