The Goldilocks zone of governing technology: Leveraging uncertainty for responsible quantum practices

TL;DR

This paper proposes a novel, uncertainty-based governance framework for quantum technologies, emphasizing probabilistic reasoning and adaptive strategies to responsibly manage physical, technical, and societal uncertainties.

Contribution

It introduces a conceptual Quantum Risk Simulator and a new governance model aligned with the probabilistic nature of quantum systems, addressing governance challenges in emerging frontier technologies.

Findings

Identifies three layers of uncertainty in quantum tech development

Proposes a probabilistic governance framework inspired by quantum mechanics

Suggests a flexible, responsible regulation approach suitable for the EU

Abstract

Emerging technologies challenge conventional governance approaches, especially when uncertainty is not a temporary obstacle but a foundational feature as in quantum computing. This paper reframes uncertainty from a governance liability to a generative force, using the paradigms of quantum mechanics to propose adaptive, probabilistic frameworks for responsible innovation. We identify three interdependent layers of uncertainty--physical, technical, and societal--central to the evolution of quantum technologies. The proposed Quantum Risk Simulator (QRS) serves as a conceptual example, an imaginative blueprint rather than a prescriptive tool, meant to illustrate how probabilistic reasoning could guide dynamic, uncertainty-based governance. By foregrounding epistemic and ontological ambiguity, and drawing analogies from cognitive neuroscience and predictive processing, we suggest a new model of governance aligned with the probabilistic essence of quantum systems. This model, we argue, is especially promising for the European Union as a third way between laissez-faire innovation and state-led control, offering a flexible yet responsible pathway for regulating quantum and other frontier technologies.