Analytic estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility diffusion models with exponential-affine characteristic function for currency option pricing

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new analytical method for estimating parameters in stochastic volatility models with exponential-affine characteristic functions, improving option pricing accuracy and calibration efficiency, especially for currency options.

Contribution

It develops novel formulas for parameter estimation in advanced stochastic volatility models, including the new OUOU two-factor model, enhancing derivative pricing tools.

Findings

The new formulas provide faster, more accurate parameter estimates.

The OUOU model extends existing models with semi-analytical valuation.

Performance tests show improved calibration accuracy on EURUSD options.

Abstract

This dissertation develops and justifies a novel method for deriving approximate formulas to estimate two parameters in stochastic volatility diffusion models with exponentially-affine characteristic functions and single- or two-factor variance. These formulas aim to improve the accuracy of option pricing and enhance the calibration process by providing reliable initial values for local minimization algorithms. The parameters relate to the volatility of the stochastic factor in instantaneous variance dynamics and the correlation between stochastic factors and asset price dynamics. The study comprises five chapters. Chapter one outlines the currency option market, pricing methods, and the general structure of stochastic volatility models. Chapter two derives the replication strategy dynamics and introduces a new two-factor volatility model: the OUOU model. Chapter three analyzes the distribution and surface dynamics of implied volatilities using principal component and common factor analysis. Chapter four discusses calibration methods for stochastic volatility models, particularly the Heston model, and presents the new Implied Central Moments method to estimate parameters in the Heston and Sch\"obel-Zhu models. Extensions to two-factor models, Bates and OUOU, are also explored. Chapter five evaluates the performance of the proposed formulas on the EURUSD options market, demonstrating the superior accuracy of the new method. The dissertation successfully meets its research objectives, expanding tools for derivative pricing and risk assessment. Key contributions include faster and more precise parameter estimation formulas and the introduction of the OUOU model - an extension of the Sch\"obel-Zhu model with a semi-analytical valuation formula for European options, previously unexamined in the literature.