Adaptive Robust Optimization for European Electricity System Planning Considering Regional Dunkelflaute Events

TL;DR

This paper presents an adaptive robust optimization model for planning a decarbonized European electricity system that accounts for regional Dunkelflaute events, revealing nonlinear cost impacts and the importance of cross-border infrastructure and flexible technologies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel capacity expansion model incorporating multiple extreme weather scenarios within a single optimization, enhancing resilience planning for renewable energy integration.

Findings

System costs increase nonlinearly with event extent, up to 71%.

Large-scale disruptions necessitate long-term hydrogen storage and load shedding.

Regional bottlenecks highlight the need for coordinated cross-border policies.

Abstract

The expansion of wind and solar power is driving the European energy system transformation, thereby also driving our reliance on this weather-dependent resources. Integrating renewable scarcity events into long-term planning has therefore become essential. This study demonstrates how worst-case regional renewable scarcity events - such as the Dunkelflaute, prolonged periods of low wind and solar availability - can be incorporated endogenously into the planning of a weather-robust, interconnected energy system. We develop a capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonized European electricity system using an adaptive robust optimization framework which incorporates multiple extreme weather realizations within a single optimization run. Results show that system costs rise nonlinearly with the geographic extent of these events: a single worst-case regional disruption increases costs by 9%, but broader disruptions across multiple regions lead to much sharper increases, up to 51%. As Dunkelflaute conditions extend across most of Europe, additional cost impacts level off, with a maximum increase of 71%. The optimal technology mix evolves with the severity of weather stress: while renewables, batteries, and interregional transmission are sufficient to manage localized events, large-scale disruptions require long-term hydrogen storage and load shedding to maintain system resilience. Central European regions, especially Germany and France, emerge as systemic bottlenecks, while peripheral regions bear the cost of compensatory overbuilding. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated European policy strategy that goes beyond national planning to support cross-border infrastructure investment, scale up flexible technologies such as long-duration storage, and promote a geographically balanced deployment of renewables to mitigate systemic risks associated with Dunkelflaute events.