A Generalizable Physics-Enhanced State Space Model for Long-Term Dynamics Forecasting in Complex Environments

TL;DR

This paper introduces Phy-SSM, a physics-enhanced state space model that improves long-term dynamics forecasting in complex, noisy, and irregular environments by integrating partial physics knowledge and regularization techniques.

Contribution

It presents a novel method that seamlessly incorporates partial physics knowledge into state space models, enhancing long-term prediction accuracy and generalization in complex environments.

Findings

Superior performance on vehicle motion prediction

Effective in drone state forecasting

Accurate COVID-19 epidemiology predictions

Abstract

This work aims to address the problem of long-term dynamic forecasting in complex environments where data are noisy and irregularly sampled. While recent studies have introduced some methods to improve prediction performance, these approaches still face a significant challenge in handling long-term extrapolation tasks under such complex scenarios. To overcome this challenge, we propose Phy-SSM, a generalizable method that integrates partial physics knowledge into state space models (SSMs) for long-term dynamics forecasting in complex environments. Our motivation is that SSMs can effectively capture long-range dependencies in sequential data and model continuous dynamical systems, while the incorporation of physics knowledge improves generalization ability. The key challenge lies in how to seamlessly incorporate partially known physics into SSMs. To achieve this, we decompose partially known system dynamics into known and unknown state matrices, which are integrated into a Phy-SSM unit. To further enhance long-term prediction performance, we introduce a physics state regularization term to make the estimated latent states align with system dynamics. Besides, we theoretically analyze the uniqueness of the solutions for our method. Extensive experiments on three real-world applications, including vehicle motion prediction, drone state prediction, and COVID-19 epidemiology forecasting, demonstrate the superior performance of Phy-SSM over the baselines in both long-term interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/511205787/Phy_SSM-ICML2025.