Robust Spatiotemporal Epidemic Modeling with Integrated Adaptive Outlier Detection

TL;DR

This paper introduces a robust spatiotemporal epidemic model that detects and adjusts for outliers, improving accuracy in disease hotspot identification and aiding public health decisions.

Contribution

The paper presents RST-GAM, a novel model combining outlier detection with epidemic modeling using adaptive regularization and scalable algorithms.

Findings

Effective outlier detection in epidemic data

Improved accuracy in disease hotspot identification

Successful application to COVID-19 data

Abstract

In epidemic modeling, outliers can distort parameter estimation and ultimately lead to misguided public health decisions. Although there are existing robust methods that can mitigate this distortion, the ability to simultaneously detect outliers is equally vital for identifying potential disease hotspots. In this work, we introduce a robust spatiotemporal generalized additive model (RST-GAM) to address this need. We accomplish this with a mean-shift parameter to quantify and adjust for the effects of outliers and rely on adaptive Lasso regularization to model the sparsity of outlying observations. We use univariate polynomial splines and bivariate penalized splines over triangulations to estimate the functional forms and a data-thinning approach for data-adaptive weight construction. We derive a scalable proximal algorithm to estimate model parameters by minimizing a convex negative log-quasi-likelihood function. Our algorithm uses adaptive step-sizes to ensure global convergence of the resulting iterate sequence. We establish error bounds and selection consistency for the estimated parameters and demonstrate our model's effectiveness through numerical studies under various outlier scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of RST-GAM by analyzing county-level COVID-19 infection data in the United States, highlighting its potential to inform public health decision-making.