Maneuver Detection via a Confidence Dominance Maneuver Indicator
Xingyu Zhou, Roberto Armellin, Laura Pirovano, Dong Qiao, Xiangyu Li

TL;DR
This paper introduces a novel maneuver detection method for spacecraft based on confidence levels, using a confidence-dominance maneuver indicator (CDMI) and recursive polynomial optimization, achieving high accuracy and efficiency.
Contribution
The paper proposes a new confidence-based maneuver detection approach with an integrated CDMI that eliminates manual parameter tuning and improves detection accuracy and computational efficiency.
Findings
Achieves up to 99.33% detection accuracy.
Outperforms existing methods by at least 10%.
Reduces computational costs significantly.
Abstract
Accurate and efficient maneuver detection is critical for ensuring the safety and predictability of spacecraft trajectories. This paper presents a novel maneuver detection approach based on comparing the confidence levels associated with the orbital state estimation and the observation likelihood. First, a confidence-dominance maneuver indicator (CDMI) is proposed by setting a confidence level for the state estimation and computing the maximum likelihood of the observation and its confidence level. The CDMI then flag a maneuver when the observation's confidence level exceeds that of the state estimation, indicating that the observation is unlikely under the no-maneuver hypothesis while maintaining consistency with the prior state estimation confidence. To efficiently compute the maximum likelihood of the observation and obtain the CDMI, a recursive polynomial optimization method is…
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