Investigating non-Keplerian motion in flare events with astrometric data

TL;DR

This study uses high-precision astrometric data from the GRAVITY interferometer to investigate whether flare motions near Sgr A* deviate from Keplerian orbits, finding current data insufficient for definitive conclusions but highlighting future potential.

Contribution

The paper provides a Bayesian analysis of flare data to test for non-Keplerian motion, demonstrating that current measurements favor circular orbits and setting constraints on deviations.

Findings

Astrometric data favor circular orbits over non-circular ones.

The non-Keplerian correction parameter is constrained around 1.45 with large uncertainties.

Current data are insufficient to definitively detect non-Keplerian motion.

Abstract

The GRAVITY interferometer has achieved microarcsecond precision in near-infrared interferometry, enabling the tracking of flare centroid motion in the strong gravitational field near the Sgr A*. It might be promising to serve as a unique laboratory for exploring the accretion matter near black holes or testing Einstein's gravity. Recent studies debated whether there is a non-Keplerian motion of the flares in the GRAVITY dataset. This motivates us to present a comprehensive analysis based on error estimation under the Bayesian framework. This study uses astrometric flare data to investigate the possibility that the flares exhibit deviations from the circular Keplerian motion. We analyze both averaged and individual flare data, modeling the hotspot with either circular orbits parameterized by a non-Keplerian correction or planar geodesic orbits. It is confirmed that the astrometric data favor the circular orbits over non-circular ones, with the orbital circularity parameter of $\gamma = 0.99_{-0.10}^{+0.07}$. Our results show that the joint posteriors for black hole mass and non-Keplerian parameter are negatively correlated. Fixing the mass to be its established value yields a non-Keplerian parameter of $\omega/\omega_k = 1.45^{+0.35}_{-0.38}$, at approximately the 1$\sigma$ level. The statistical significance is insufficiently high, and the conclusion is found to be sensitive to the presence of correlations in the astrometric data, which might originate from the non-uniform $u$-$v$ coverage in interferometer measurements. In this sense, the current data might be insufficient to draw a definitive conclusion regarding the presence of non-Keplerian motion. Future improvements in astrometry precision might enable stronger constraints on the kinematical behavior of the flares.