Cutting the Geopolitical Ties: Foreign Exchange Reserves, GDP and Military Spending

TL;DR

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign exchange reserves, GDP, and military spending in Western countries over 20 years, revealing military spending as a stronger predictor of FER and modeling future currency network shifts.

Contribution

It introduces a novel geopolitical network model incorporating economic and military factors to predict future foreign exchange reserve balances and currency network dynamics.

Findings

Military spending better explains FER than GDP for Western currencies.

The Chinese renminbi is currently beyond the FER equilibrium but shows a trend towards balance.

Projected FER balance for RMB and Western currencies within 15-40 years.

Abstract

We show that the amount of foreign exchange reserves (FER) in the world in a given currency is highly correlated with the GDP and military spending of that country for a set of western economies during the last 20 years. Taking into account multicollinearity, Ridge and Lasso regressions reveal that the Foreign Exchange Reserve is better explained by military spending than GDP for seven western currencies. For each year shown, military spending is statistically significant more than the monetary instrument M2. Comparing the currency of the second world economy, the Chinese renminbi, is well beyond the western FER equilibrium, but yearly analysis shows that there is a steady trend towards a new FER balance. Next, we define a complex geopolitical network model in which the probability of switching to an alternative FER currency depends both on economic and political factors. Military spending is introduced into the model as an average share of GDP observed within the data. As the GDP of a particular country grows, so does the military power of a country. The nature of the creation of new currency networks initially depends only on geopolitical allegiance. As the volume of trade with a particular country changes over a designated threshold, a country switches to the currency of that country due to increased trade. If the current steady trend continues within the same geopolitical setting as in the past twenty years, we extrapolate that the RMB and Western currencies could reach a new FER balance within 15 to 40 years, depending on the model setup.