Conformal Information Pursuit for Interactively Guiding Large Language Models

TL;DR

This paper introduces Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), a novel uncertainty estimation method for interactive question-answering with large language models, improving query efficiency and interpretability over existing approaches.

Contribution

It proposes C-IP, a distribution-free, robust uncertainty estimation technique based on conformal prediction sets, enhancing sequential querying strategies for LLMs in interactive tasks.

Findings

C-IP outperforms previous methods in 20 Questions task with shorter query chains.

C-IP achieves competitive accuracy in medical diagnosis setting with greater interpretability.

Conformal prediction sets provide a robust, distribution-free measure of uncertainty.

Abstract

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM proba- bilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.