Multi-polarization during the 9th European Parliament

TL;DR

This study analyzes the 9th European Parliament's co-voting networks, revealing a multi-polar landscape with fluid coalitions driven by ideology and group membership, challenging traditional binary polarization views.

Contribution

It introduces a network-based analysis of European Parliament voting patterns, uncovering multi-polarity and issue-driven alliances that differ from US/UK polarization models.

Findings

Coalitions are fluid and issue-driven, not fixed along a left-right divide.

Ideological affinity and group membership are primary factors in voting behavior.

A Eurosceptic versus Euroenthusiastic cleavage emerges across issues.

Abstract

Brexit, a global pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and record inflation - few legislative bodies have faced such a cascade of shocks as the European Parliament did during its 9th term (2019-2024). Using the Bipartite Configuration Model and a set of network statistics, this research explores how multi-polarization was characterized during this term by constructing and analyzing co-voting networks across all legislative subjects and within specific legislative subjects. The results contest binary polarization narratives inherited from US/UK scholarship by uncovering a multi-polar landscape. In many legislative subjects, including "Community policies", "Internal market, single market", and "External relations of the Union", coalitions realign fluidly, forming several voting communities rather than a single left-right divide. Ideological affinity and group memberships, not nationality, emerge as the primary forces that bind or separate Members of the European Parliament, reaffirming the chamber's transnational character. Two quantitative patterns stand out. First, the Greens/EFA and The Left display the highest intragroup cohesion, while governing groups - EPP, S&D, and Renew - often fracture into multiple, issue-driven alliances, suggesting declining centrist disciplines. Second, a distinct Eurosceptic versus Euroenthusiastic cleavage crystallizes in matters concerning the "State and evolution of the Union" subject, cutting across economic and social ideologies and hinting at a budding second dimension of parliamentary conflict. This research highlights how legislative consensus in the European Parliament will hinge on navigating a fluid, multi-polar, issue-driven alliance landscape rather than building stable grand coalitions.