Green Ammonia: A Techno-Economic Supply Chain Optimization

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the techno-economic aspects of green ammonia supply chains, comparing costs and transportation modes, and provides strategic insights for policymakers on infrastructure investments and future hydrogen carrier choices.

Contribution

It offers a comprehensive techno-economic comparison of green ammonia pathways and evaluates optimal transport modes and policy recommendations for future hydrogen infrastructure.

Findings

Gaseous hydrogen remains the most economical import option for Europe.

Ammonia's cost advantage over liquid hydrogen narrows from 16% in 2030 to 10% in 2040.

Pipeline infrastructure is crucial for future hydrogen distribution.

Abstract

Green ammonia is emerging as a strategic intermediary within green energy supply chains, serving effectively as both an industrial commodity and hydrogen carrier. This study provides a techno-economic analysis of green ammonia supply chains, comparing cost-effective pathways from global production to European consumers, and evaluates ammonia alongside alternative hydrogen carriers. Gaseous hydrogen consistently remains the most economical import option for Europe, though ammonia holds a narrowing cost advantage over liquid hydrogen (from 16 % in 2030 to 10 % by 2040). Competitive ammonia suppliers, notably Morocco, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates, benefit from low renewable energy costs, with significant price reductions expected by 2040, driven by falling costs for electricity, electrolysers, and conversion technologies. Optimal transport modes vary by consumer demand and distance: trucks are ideal for low demands at all distances, rail for medium ranges, and pipelines for high-demand scenarios. By 2040, ammonia will primarily serve direct-use applications, as hydrogen consumers increasingly shift to direct hydrogen supplies. Policymakers should prioritize pipeline infrastructure for hydrogen distribution, cautiously invest in ammonia's short- to medium-term infrastructure advantages, and limit long-term reliance on ammonia as a hydrogen carrier to mitigate stranded asset risks.