The First Compute Arms Race: the Early History of Numerical Weather Prediction

TL;DR

This paper explores the early history of numerical weather prediction, highlighting the global competition to develop computational methods post-World War II and identifying key factors influencing its progress.

Contribution

It provides a historical analysis of the initial global efforts in numerical weather prediction and derives lessons applicable to modern AI-driven scientific development.

Findings

Compute capabilities were crucial for progress.

Institution building and talent were key factors.

Lessons for current AI and scientific competitiveness.

Abstract

This paper traces the global race to apply early electronic computers to numerical weather prediction in the decades following World War Two. A brief overview of the early history of numerical weather prediction in the United States, United Kingdom, Sweden, Canada, and Japan is provided. Three critical factors that shaped the development of a national numerical weather prediction are identified: compute capabilities, institution building and state capacity, and talent. Several generalizable lessons are identified with a lens towards modern-day development of national strategies to leverage AI to accelerate scientific competitiveness.