Suspense and Surprise in European Football

TL;DR

This paper introduces match-level suspense and surprise as new metrics to evaluate entertainment value in European football, analyzing extensive match data to inform league policies and improve match attractiveness.

Contribution

It proposes using suspense and surprise as policy targets, providing benchmark ranges, and analyzing over 25,000 matches to reveal patterns in competitive balance and entertainment utility.

Findings

Matches are less suspenseful than the benchmark, especially for top teams.

Surprise levels align with the benchmark across matches.

Trends vary over time and differ across leagues and clubs.

Abstract

We propose utilizing match-level suspense and surprise - which capture the entertainment utility created by competitive balance and outcome uncertainty for sports spectators - as alternative policy targets for league organizers and managers. Through simulations, we derive a benchmark range for suspense and surprise based on a perfectly balanced match before analyzing over 25,000 men's matches (2010/11-2023/24) and 725 women's matches (2023/24) from Europe's top football leagues. Our findings reveal that an average match generates lower suspense compared to the benchmark range, particularly for top teams, while surprise values consistently align with the benchmark. Moreover, we observe nuanced trends over time in men's football and highlight notable differences across leagues and clubs in both men's and women's competitions. These insights enhance our understanding of how the attractiveness of matches arises from competitive balance and carry important policy implications.