The State of Papers, Retractions, and Preprints: Evidence from the CrossRef Database (2004-2024)

TL;DR

This 20-year study of CrossRef data reveals that scholarly publications, retractions, and preprints grow steadily with inertia, unaffected significantly by COVID-19, indicating systemic stability and persistent structural bottlenecks in scholarly communication.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive quantitative analysis of long-term trends in scholarly output, retractions, and preprints, highlighting systemic inertia and stability over two decades.

Findings

Publications double every 9.8 years.

Retractions double every 11.4 years.

Preprints grow fastest, doubling every 5.6 years.

Abstract

A 20-year analysis of CrossRef metadata demonstrates that global scholarly output -- encompassing publications, retractions, and preprints -- exhibits strikingly inertial growth, well-described by exponential, quadratic, and logistic models with nearly indistinguishable goodness-of-fit. Retraction dynamics, in particular, remain stable and minimally affected by the COVID-19 shock, which contributed less than 1% to total notices. Since 2004, publications doubled every 9.8 years, retractions every 11.4 years, and preprints at the fastest rate, every 5.6 years. The findings underscore a system primed for ongoing stress at unchanged structural bottlenecks. Although model forecasts diverge beyond 2024, the evidence suggests that the future trajectory of scholarly communication will be determined by persistent systemic inertia rather than episodic disruptions -- unless intentionally redirected by policy or AI-driven reform.