Heterogeneous Exposures to Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk across Crypto Assets: A Divide-and-Conquer Approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel two-stage divide-and-conquer method to analyze heterogeneous risk exposures in crypto assets, revealing how different categories respond to systematic and idiosyncratic risks.

Contribution

It develops a new approach to identify latent economy-wide risk factors and applies it to crypto assets, uncovering structured heterogeneity in risk exposures across categories.

Findings

Green and DeFi assets are more exposed to market and economy-wide risks.

Stablecoins are less exposed to various risk factors.

Crypto assets show short-term mean reversion in returns.

Abstract

This paper analyzes realized return behavior across a broad set of crypto assets by estimating heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk. A key challenge arises from the latent nature of broader economy-wide risk sources: macro-financial proxies are unavailable at high-frequencies, while the abundance of low-frequency candidates offers limited guidance on empirical relevance. To address this, we develop a two-stage ``divide-and-conquer'' approach. The first stage estimates exposures to high-frequency idiosyncratic and market risk only, using asset-level IV regressions. The second stage identifies latent economy-wide factors by extracting the leading principal component from the model residuals and mapping it to lower-frequency macro-financial uncertainty and sentiment-based indicators via high-dimensional variable selection. Structured patterns of heterogeneity in exposures are uncovered using Mean Group estimators across asset categories. The method is applied to a broad sample of crypto assets, covering more than 80% of total market capitalization. We document short-term mean reversion and significant average exposures to idiosyncratic volatility and illiquidity. Green and DeFi assets are, on average, more exposed to market-level and economy-wide risk than their non-Green and non-DeFi counterparts. By contrast, stablecoins are less exposed to idiosyncratic, market-level, and economy-wide risk factors relative to non-stablecoins. At a conceptual level, our study develops a coherent framework for isolating distinct layers of risk in crypto markets. Empirically, it sheds light on how return sensitivities vary across digital asset categories -- insights that are important for both portfolio design and regulatory oversight.