Time-series surrogates from energy consumers generated by machine learning approaches for long-term forecasting scenarios

TL;DR

This paper compares advanced machine learning methods for generating synthetic long-term energy consumption data at the individual household level, aiming to improve forecasting accuracy and privacy preservation.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive evaluation of WGAN, DDPM, HMM, and MABF for realistic long-term energy consumption data generation, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations.

Findings

WGAN and DDPM excel at capturing temporal dynamics.

HMM performs well in modeling probabilistic transitions.

MABF offers a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.

Abstract

Forecasting attracts a lot of research attention in the electricity value chain. However, most studies concentrate on short-term forecasting of generation or consumption with a focus on systems and less on individual consumers. Even more neglected is the topic of long-term forecasting of individual power consumption. Here, we provide an in-depth comparative evaluation of data-driven methods for generating synthetic time series data tailored to energy consumption long-term forecasting. High-fidelity synthetic data is crucial for a wide range of applications, including state estimations in energy systems or power grid planning. In this study, we assess and compare the performance of multiple state-of-the-art but less common techniques: a hybrid Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN), Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM), Hidden Markov Model (HMM), and Masked Autoregressive Bernstein polynomial normalizing Flows (MABF). We analyze the ability of each method to replicate the temporal dynamics, long-range dependencies, and probabilistic transitions characteristic of individual energy consumption profiles. Our comparative evaluation highlights the strengths and limitations of: WGAN, DDPM, HMM and MABF aiding in selecting the most suitable approach for state estimations and other energy-related tasks. Our generation and analysis framework aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of synthetic power consumption data while generating data that fulfills criteria like anonymisation - preserving privacy concerns mitigating risks of specific profiling of single customers. This study utilizes an open-source dataset from households in Germany with 15min time resolution. The generated synthetic power profiles can readily be used in applications like state estimations or consumption forecasting.