Dynamic Causal Mediation Analysis for Intensive Longitudinal Data

TL;DR

This paper introduces novel causal mediation effects tailored for intensive longitudinal data, enabling the analysis of complex time-varying causal pathways with robust estimators, demonstrated through real-world health studies.

Contribution

It proposes natural direct and indirect excursion effects for mediation analysis in intensive longitudinal data, along with multiply-robust estimators that incorporate machine learning and cross-fitting.

Findings

Proposed estimators are multiply-robust and accommodate machine learning.

Establishes the asymptotic properties of the estimators.

Illustrates methodology with real-world health data.

Abstract

Intensive longitudinal data, characterized by frequent measurements across numerous time points, are increasingly common due to advances in wearable devices and mobile health technologies. We consider evaluating causal mediation pathways between time-varying exposures, time-varying mediators, and a final, distal outcome using such data. Addressing mediation questions in these settings is challenging due to numerous potential exposures, complex mediation pathways, and intermediate confounding. Existing methods, such as interventional and path-specific effects, become impractical in intensive longitudinal data. We propose novel mediation effects termed natural direct and indirect excursion effects, which quantify mediation through the most immediate mediator following each treatment time. These effects are identifiable under plausible assumptions and decompose the total excursion effect. We derive efficient influence functions and propose multiply-robust estimators for these mediation effects. The estimators are multiply-robust and accommodate flexible machine learning algorithms and optional cross-fitting. In settings where the treatment assignment mechanism is known, such as the micro-randomized trial, the estimators are doubly-robust. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. Our methodology is illustrated using real-world data from the HeartSteps micro-randomized trial and the SleepHealth observational study.