100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration

TL;DR

This study analyzes the USD/IDR exchange rate around the 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, revealing significant depreciation and anomalies, which have implications for currency risk management in emerging markets.

Contribution

It introduces a non-parametric bootstrap approach to detect anomalies and quantify exchange rate shifts during a political transition period.

Findings

Indonesian rupiah depreciated by 3.61% post-inauguration

Four significant anomalies with temporal clustering detected

Stable volatility despite central tendency shifts

Abstract

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta $= -0.9224$, CI: $[-0.9727, -0.8571]$). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio $= 0.9061$, $p = 0.504$). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.