LLM Probability Concentration: How Alignment Shrinks the Generative Horizon

TL;DR

This paper introduces the Branching Factor (BF), a measure of output predictability in LLMs, revealing how alignment tuning reduces output diversity and influences model behavior, especially in complex reasoning tasks.

Contribution

The paper proposes BF as a new metric to quantify output concentration, demonstrating how alignment tuning sharpens output distributions and affects model predictability and reasoning stability.

Findings

Alignment tuning reduces BF by 2-5 times overall.

BF decreases as generation progresses, indicating increased predictability.

Aligned Chain-of-Thought models generate longer, more deterministic reasoning chains.

Abstract

Despite their impressive capabilities, aligned large language models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack diversity. What drives this consistency in the generation? We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of probability concentration in the model's output distribution. To quantify this concentration, we introduce the *Branching Factor* (BF) -- a token-invariant measure of the effective number of plausible next steps during generation. Our empirical analysis reveals two key findings: (1) BF often decreases as generation progresses, suggesting that LLMs become more predictable as they generate. (2) alignment tuning substantially sharpens the model's output distribution from the outset, reducing BF by a factor of 2-5 overall, and up to an order of magnitude (e.g., from 12 to 1.2) at the beginning positions. This stark reduction helps explain why aligned models often appear less sensitive to decoding strategies. Building on this insight, we find this consistency has surprising implications for complex reasoning. Aligned Chain-of-Thought (CoT) models (e.g., DeepSeek-distilled models), for instance, leverage this effect; by generating longer reasoning chains, they push generation into later, more deterministic (lower BF) stages, resulting in more stable outputs. We hypothesize that alignment tuning does not fundamentally change a model's behavior, but instead steers it toward stylistic tokens (e.g., "Sure") that unlock low-entropy trajectories already present in the base model. This view is supported by nudging experiments, which show prompting base models with such tokens can similarly reduce BF. Together, our findings establish BF as a powerful diagnostic for understanding and controlling LLM outputs - clarifying how alignment reduces variability, how CoT promotes stable generations, and how base models can be steered away from diversity.