Self-organized Collapse of Societies

TL;DR

This paper presents a minimal mathematical model combining economic growth and social dissatisfaction spreading to explain societal instability, wealth distribution effects, and boom-bust cycles consistent with empirical data.

Contribution

It introduces a simple, dynamic model linking wealth inequality and social unrest, highlighting the importance of broad wealth distributions in societal collapse.

Findings

Model reproduces boom and bust cycles observed in history.

Broad wealth distributions are key to social unrest dynamics.

Model time scales align with empirical societal data.

Abstract

Why are human societies unstable? Theories based on the observation of recurring patterns in historical data indicate that economic inequality, as well as social factors are key drivers. So far, models of this phenomenon are more macroscopic in nature. However, basic mechanisms at work could be accessible to minimal mathematical models. Here we combine a simple mechanism for economic growth with a mechanism for the spreading of social dissatisfaction. Broad wealth distributions generated by the economic mechanism eventually trigger social unrest and the destruction of wealth, leading to an emerging pattern of boom and bust. We find that the model time scales compare well with empirical data. The model emphasizes the role of broad (power law) wealth distributions for dynamical social phenomena.