Bayesian Epistemology with Weighted Authority: A Formal Architecture for Truth-Promoting Autonomous Scientific Reasoning

TL;DR

This paper presents BEWA, a formal Bayesian framework for autonomous scientific reasoning that dynamically evaluates and propagates scientific claims, integrating author credibility, evidence, and temporal factors to promote truth and integrity.

Contribution

It introduces a novel formal architecture, BEWA, that operationalizes belief over scientific claims with weighted authority, enabling verifiable, dynamic, and rational scientific reasoning.

Findings

Formalizes scientific reasoning as a probabilistic epistemic network

Supports credibility modeling and cryptographic verification

Enhances truth-promoting autonomous scientific inference

Abstract

The exponential expansion of scientific literature has surpassed the epistemic processing capabilities of both human experts and current artificial intelligence systems. This paper introduces Bayesian Epistemology with Weighted Authority (BEWA), a formally structured architecture that operationalises belief as a dynamic, probabilistically coherent function over structured scientific claims. Each claim is contextualised, author-attributed, and evaluated through a system of replication scores, citation weighting, and temporal decay. Belief updates are performed via evidence-conditioned Bayesian inference, contradiction processing, and epistemic decay mechanisms. The architecture supports graph-based claim propagation, authorial credibility modelling, cryptographic anchoring, and zero-knowledge audit verification. By formalising scientific reasoning into a computationally verifiable epistemic network, BEWA advances the foundation for machine reasoning systems that promote truth utility, rational belief convergence, and audit-resilient integrity across dynamic scientific domains.