Flips Reveal the Universal Impact of Memory on Random Explorations

TL;DR

This paper introduces the concept of flips to quantify memory effects in random walks, revealing a universal inverse relationship between flip probability and visited sites across various models and real-world systems.

Contribution

It defines flips as a new observable for analyzing memory effects and uncovers a universal law governing flip probability decay in non-Markovian systems.

Findings

Flip probability decays as 1/n with the number of sites visited.

Universal behavior observed across models and real-world data.

Extension of results to higher-dimensional and fractal domains.

Abstract

Quantifying space exploration is a central question in random walk theory, with direct applications ranging from animal foraging, diffusion-limited reactions, and intracellular transport to stock markets. In particular, the explored domain by one or many simple memoryless (or Markovian) random walks has received considerable attention . However, the physical systems mentioned above typically involve significant memory effects, and so far, no general framework exists to analyze such systems. We introduce the concept of a \emph{flip}, defined most naturally in one dimension, where the visited territory is $[x_{\rm min}, x_{\rm max}]$: a flip occurs when, after discovering a new site at $x_{\rm max}$, the walker next discovers $x_{\rm min} - 1$ instead of $x_{\rm max} + 1$ (and vice-versa). While it reduces to the classical splitting probability in Markovian systems, we show that the flip probability serves as a key observable for quantifying the impact of memory effects on space exploration. Here, we demonstrate that the flip probability follows a strikingly simple and universal law: it decays inversely with the number of sites visited, as \(1/n\), independently of the underlying stochastic process. We confirm this behavior through simulations across paradigmatic non-Markovian models and observe it in real-world systems, without relying on model assumptions, including biological tracer motion, DNA sequences, and financial market dynamics. Finally, we reveal the physical mechanism behind this universality and show how it extends to higher-dimensional and fractal domains. Our determination of universal flip statistics lay the groundwork for understanding how memory effects govern random explorations.